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Scooped by
Graham Watson
onto Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics |
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Cost of leaving EU will also impede new policy initiatives, thinktank’s report says
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Net migration has benefits but has done nothing to address downward trend in per capita GDP
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott makes the point that since 2010, there's been net inwards migration of nearly 4m people, something that would sound absurd if it were a pre-election pledge today.
However, inward migration hasn't boosted per capita GDP as you might expect it to. So why?
Larry Elliott reckons that it's a lack of infrastructure that has meant that has resulted in this and that if we are to continue to accept large numbers of immigrants we will need to invest in the infrastructure, not least in housing.
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Rishi Sunak says the money, paid over 10 years, would help regenerate areas such as Mansfield, Rotherham and Hartlepool
Graham Watson's insight:
Crikey! It's a bad day for the government when it has to reheat policies that, I suspect, most people have already written off as ineffectual. Even worse, you are reduced to relying on cracking down on tax avoidance - again - to fund these pledges.
However, there we are: more levelling up, funded by cracking down on tax avoidance that you've avoided doing for the previous 14 years. Believe it, if you like. But don't hold your breath.
donaldo's curator insight,
June 2, 10:06 PM
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From
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Slow income growth should be tackled with policies to improve productivity, a report suggests.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has called for the next government to focus on boosting growth via increased productivity with a specific focus on boosting living standards. Their research suggests that in the UK, there's been exceptionally slow growth of median and working-age incomes in the UK relative to the US and Germany.
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We look at whether the Conservative pledge for a ‘triple lock plus’ can really be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian looks at yesterday's Conservative pledge to raise the tax-free pension allowance for pensioners. It replays many of the arguments that I advanced yesterday - it's simply the reversal of a policy that the Conservatives themselves brought in, and the idea of funding it via an increased clampdown on tax avoidance is equally risible.
But instead of me, it's people with genuine credentials who make the case.
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Mel Stride says pensioners will pay more income tax under Labour as critics say plan is merely reversal of previous Tory policy
Graham Watson's insight:
Today's Conservative pledge to reduce the tax liability of pensioners is work of a peculiar type of genius. In the first place, its' the reversal of a policy previously put in place by the Conservatives in the 2010s.
Additionally, the notion that it's going to be funded by clamping down on tax avoidance is equally risible. If it's that easy to find an extra £6bn, why hasn't the government done it already. So, aren't the issues more about why the government hasn't clamped down on tax avoidance and evasion before, never mind the equity issues involved in 'bribing' pensioners.
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From
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Household budgets have come under pressure as prices soared in the wake of the pandemic.
Graham Watson's insight:
More evidence that the rate of increase of shop prices has reverted back to normal with the British Retail Consortium suggesting that shop prices only rose by 0.6% in April and food price inflation also fell to 3.2% last month.
Goodish news for inflation.
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Both major parties will try to conduct their campaigns without mentioning Brexit. But we cannot afford not to discuss it
Graham Watson's insight:
No prizes for guessing what William Keegan's written about in today's Observer. Brexit.
However, for all its absence from the General Election campaign, he's not wrong. Britain would gain from rejoining the EU.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 11:18 PM
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Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves says she too wants lower taxes for working people as both parties begin to set out economic plans
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the Conservatives are, at some point, looking to lower taxes should they win the next election, especially on higher earners. However, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has dismissed the move and made her own pitch to be best-placed to run the economy.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 11:18 PM
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From unemployment to inflation, the key data the Tories and Labour must explain to voters
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott outlines five key dates for the election diary, with key bits of economic data being released in the next six weeks, including economic growth, inflation and unemployment data and another interest rate decision.
And whilst the consensus is that the economy is going to be picking up, will this come sound enough or have people already made their minds up.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
Today, 12:52 AM
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Economies decide elections but with growth tentative, inflation sticky, and tax cuts unlikely, why would the PM wait
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott wonders why the government have called a General Election, and thinks that it might be because this is as good as it gets for the government, even though growth remains moribund, and inflation sticky. You'd like to think things will get better; it might not.
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From olive oil to cocoa and carpets to holiday centres, how the cost of everyday things varies
Graham Watson's insight:
A little look at what's up and what's down in price in the last 12 months. The sharpest rise in prices? Olive oil? The sharpest fall? Gas, down by 37.5%.
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Britain’s jet set insist they will flee if they lose their benefits – but Labour should not be daunted, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
Graham Watson's insight:
Polemic, yes, but perhaps the better for that.
Should the super-rich be paying more in tax? And if this becomes a realistic prospect, how many of them will leave the UK or find ever more creative ways to avoid paying tax? And should we care?
I'm not going to comment - I think regular readers of my board know my views on this sort of thing. Is being super-rich the result of hard work or almost entirely to do with serendipity?
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Ministers are discussing who will build the plant, which will join Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C as major future suppliers to the grid
Graham Watson's insight:
Energy security, supply-side improvements and so on. But hang on, how long has the nuclear power plant at Wylfa been on the drawing board?
I first 'scooped' the prospect of government investment in Wylfa on 4 June 2018! So, it's taken 6 years to get to this point. So, rather than celebrating this, surely it's ample demonstration of the failure of current planning and infrastructure thinking.
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Senior adviser who worked for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown says there is an ‘urgent imperative’ for a new government to address wealth inequality in Britain
Graham Watson's insight:
Another call for a wealth tax - with a leading Blairite advisor suggesting that any incoming Labour government needs to introduce a wealth tax on the super-rich.
donaldo's curator insight,
June 2, 10:00 PM
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The Conservatives and Labour are embroiled in a fight to woo voters with promises to keep rates of tax low
Graham Watson's insight:
Phillip Inman looks at the current state of public finances and seems to accept that its likely that neither the Conservatives or Labour are going to be in a position to cut taxes post-election. Instead, they're effectively competing to convince voters who will increase taxes the least.
This explainer looks at the options facing the parties with regard to a raft of taxes.
donaldo's curator insight,
June 2, 10:09 PM
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The British Chambers of Commerce has called on the next government to help firms deal with the EU.
Graham Watson's insight:
The British Chambers of Commerce have argued for a return to a more stable trading environment and closer relations with our trading partners in the EU. It would seem that there are, self-evidently, costs of Brexit. It's fascinating, though, to see that they stop short of calling for a reversal of Brexit.
I won't though. Brexit has been a disaster, but that's what you get when you allow a campaign based on lies to appeal to an audience of idiots.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
May 30, 9:07 AM
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If high inflation hurts just about everyone, why can’t we have no inflation? Over the past few years, most of the world has experienced some pretty intense inflation, with prices rising as much as 10 percent in a single year. In 2024, even though inflation rates have fallen to more manageable levels, prices are still way up and are very unlikely to come down. Which, understandably, continues to be a source of major stress for people all over the world. So why can’t prices just stay the same?
Graham Watson's insight:
I've only just stumbled on this; it's a good little primer on why a little bit of inflation is a good thing. There's some straightforward explanations here - looking at the importance of real wages keeping pace with inflation - and the benefits of low, stable inflation.
The only downside? The DCU adverts
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 11:17 PM
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In her first major campaign speech, the shadow chancellor said all policies will be "fully costed".
Graham Watson's insight:
The economy is today's election battleground and the Labour Party have received support from a number of prominent business leaders and promised that their manifesto pledges are all fully-funded.
The Prime Minister claims that their pledges will cost £2,000 per family, which sounds a little hollow from the party responsible for Brexit and recent tax increases, and which is only now pledging to lower taxes for pensioners ahead of everyone else.
The choice, ultimately, is that of the electorate. And 2016 says something about turkeys voting for Christmas.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
May 30, 9:10 AM
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The Conservatives pledge to raise the tax-free pension allowance by at least 2.5% a year if they win the election.
Graham Watson's insight:
Economic policymaking in the national interest or a pre-Election bribe? You decide.
For my part, I'll just suggest it's the most advantaged generation of electors - free healthcare/university education, biggest beneficiaries of EU membership and housing policy - getting even more from the government. Ironically, it seems that a Conservative government is now committed to the extension of socialist protections of a specific group to try and keep themselves in power.
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Hastings has the highest number of young people in England in bad health. But, amid a national epidemic of forced economic inactivity, there is hope
Graham Watson's insight:
This Observer piece looks at the town of Hastings, as a microcosm of the wider issue of economic inactivity, and the number of people who have opted out of the labour market in the post-coronavirus era.
The result of this has been a decline in the size of the working population which, of course, has wider macroeconomic implications.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 10:20 PM
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A leading think tank warns more tax rises or cuts to public services could lie ahead.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) are certain that the state of public finances is such that, irrespective of whoever wins the election, there are tough choices to be made in the form of tax increases or spending cuts. As a result, they are calling on both parties to be transparent in their election campaigns, and realistic in the pledges that they make to the electorate.
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Retail sales fell by much more than expected last month as heavy rain kept shoppers at home.
Graham Watson's insight:
April's bad weather has had a marked effect on retail sales, with sales volumes falling by 2.3%, markedly more than most analysts expected. Curiously, even online sales fell by over 1% and fewer trips being taken meant that fuel sales were also down by nearly 5% in April.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 11:18 PM
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ONS says budget deficit £1.5bn higher than previous year due to increased spending on benefits and weaker tax revenues
Graham Watson's insight:
Almost overlooked in the news that we've got a General Election at the start of July, were the latest public finance figures which rather confirmed the IMF's gloomy view. The budget deficit increased by £1.5bn last year, pushing government borrowing above £20bn last month and keeping government debt at 97.9% of GDP.
And this means that the Chancellor wouldn't have had any realistic chance of offering pre-election sweeteners, and might have been one of the things that precipitated the announcement of the 4 July election.
prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment,
June 2, 11:19 PM
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Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott drills down into today's inflation figure, noting that although it's fallen to 2.3% - largely driven by falling energy prices - there are still two main pockets of concern.
Core inflation remains high - it's down from 4.2% to 3.9% - and service sector inflation has hardly budged - falling marginally from 6% to 5.9% - both of which might deter immediate interest rate cuts.
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World body’s latest health check of UK economy says ‘unpopular revenue-raising measures’ may be needed
Graham Watson's insight:
After the IMF yesterday warned the government of a £30bn fiscal hole emerging, the government response is predictable: cutting taxes, specifically National Insurance.
It looks like a desperate act by a desperate government, another bit of economic vandalism - Brexit, anyone? - for which they will not be held to account and is self-evidently politically, rather than economically motivated.
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More good news from Brexit - however, you dice and slice it, it seems that Brexit is going to have an adverse effect upon the public finances. Well, I never. Who would have thought it?
Of course, it's all going to be offset by the £350m per week we're no longer sending to Brussels. Apart from the fact that the net figure was much, much lower, and we're also likely to have to pay of 'divorce' settlement as part of our contribution to the EU budget.