Abstract The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for sustaining human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vegetation cover remains a challenge. Recently, changes in plant transpiration across the Amazon basin were shown to be associated disproportionately with changes in rainfall, suggesting that even small declines in transpiration (e.g., from deforestation) would lead to much larger declines in rainfall. Here, constraining these findings by the law of mass conservation, we show that in a sufficiently wet atmosphere, forest transpiration can control atmospheric moisture convergence such that increased transpiration enhances atmospheric moisture import and results in water yield. Conversely, in a sufficiently dry atmosphere increased transpiration reduces atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. This previously unrecognized dichotomy can explain the otherwise mixed observations of how water yield responds to re-greening, as we illustrate with examples from China's Loess Plateau. Our analysis indicates that any additional precipitation recycling due to additional vegetation increases precipitation but decreases local water yield and steady-state runoff. Therefore, in the drier regions/periods and early stages of ecological restoration, the role of vegetation can be confined to precipitation recycling, while once a wetter stage is achieved, additional vegetation enhances atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. Recent analyses indicate that the latter regime dominates the global response of the terrestrial water cycle to re-greening. Evaluating the transition between regimes, and recognizing the potential of vegetation for enhancing moisture convergence, are crucial for characterizing the consequences of deforestation as well as for motivating and guiding ecological restoration.
Secondo lo psicologo e neuroscienziato tedesco si sceglie meglio quando ci si affida all'intuizione. Che non è un sesto senso nè un impulso istintivo. Ma un'intelligenza inconscia, slegata dal ragionamento, che ci permette di agire e decidere con grande rapidità e precisione. Imboccando spesso la strada giusta senza bisogno di troppi calcoli
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Secondo lo psicologo e neuroscienziato tedesco si sceglie meglio quando ci si affida all'intuizione. Che non è un sesto senso nè un impulso istintivo. Ma un'intelligenza inconscia, slegata dal ragionamento, che ci permette di agire e decidere con grande rapidità e precisione. Imboccando spesso la strada giusta senza bisogno di troppi calcoli
Abstract: In perceptual decision making, it is often found that human observers combine sensory information and prior knowledge suboptimally. Typically, in detection tasks, when an alternative is a priori more likely to occur, observers choose it more frequently to account for the unequal base rate but not to the extent they should, a phenomenon referred to as "conservative decision bias" (i.e., observers do not shift their decision criterion enough). One theoretical explanation of this phenomenon is that observers are overconfident in their ability to interpret sensory information, resulting in overweighting the sensory information relative to prior knowledge. Here, we derived formally this candidate model, and we tested it in a visual discrimination task in which we manipulated the prior probabilities of occurrence of the stimuli. We measured confidence in decisions and decision criterion placement in two separate experimental sessions for the same participants (N = 69). Both overconfidence bias and conservative decision bias were found in our data, but critically the link that was predicted between these two quantities was absent. Our data suggested instead that when informed about the a priori probability, overconfident participants put less effort into processing sensory information. These findings offer new perspectives on the role of overconfidence bias to explain suboptimal decisions.
Stanford team achieves first-ever optical backpropagation milestone
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Processors that use light instead of electricity show promise as a faster and more energy-efficient way to implement AI. So far they’ve only been used to run models that have already been trained, but new research has demonstrated the ability to train AI on an optical chip for the first time. As AI models get ever larger there is growing concern about the amount of energy they consume, both due to ballooning costs and the potential impact on the environment. This is spurring interest in new approaches that can reduce AI’s energy bills, with photonic processors emerging as a leading candidate. These chips replace the electrons found in conventional processors with photons and use optical components like waveguides, filters, and light detectors to create circuits that can carry out computational tasks. They are particularly promising for running AI because they are very efficient at carrying out matrix multiplications—a key calculation at the heart of all deep-learning models. Companies like Boston-based Lightmatter and Lightelligence in Cambridge, Mass., are already working to commercialize photonic AI chips
Jim talks with Mirta Galesic about the ideas in her co-authored paper “Stewardship of Global Collective Behavior.” They discuss the meaning of collective behavior, a crisis in network structures, the analogy of the printing press, consequences of person-to-person communication, the capacity for collective forgetting, unpredictable developments in chatbots, bottom-up vs top-down influence, advertising-driven information ecosystems, emergent knobs in social media design, ChatGPT’s political bias, the widespread trust in algorithms, suggestions for reforming Twitter, information decay, viscosity, opportunities & dangers of mass surveillance data, the Twitter Files, free speech & cultural evolution, and much more.
Jim parla con Mirta Galesic delle idee nel suo articolo scritto “Stewardship of Global Collective Behavior."Discutono il significato del comportamento collettivo, una crisi nelle strutture di rete, l'analogia della macchina da stampa, conseguenze della comunicazione da persona a persona, la capacità di dimenticare collettivamente, sviluppi imprevedibili nei chatbot, influenza dal basso verso l'alto rispetto al top verso il basso, ecosistemi di informazione guidati dalla pubblicità, manopole emergenti nel design dei social media, Il pregiudizio politico di ChatGPT, la diffusa fiducia negli algoritmi, suggerimenti per riformare Twitter, decadimento delle informazioni, viscosità, opportunità e pericoli dei dati di sorveglianza di massa, i file di Twitter, libertà di parola ed evoluzione culturale, e molto altro ancora.
Vijay Balasubramanian University of Pennsylvania, SFI The human brain consists of a 100 billion neurons connected by a 100 trillion synapses. In its computational function, each neuron is a simple electrical device. In this sense it is no different, in its conceptual essence, from a transistor or a diode in a silicon microchip, converting input signals into ephemeral voltage pulses that transmit to other neurons. And yet, the collective effect of these tiny electrical flutterings creates the intelligent mind, with its astonishing capacity for perception and action, memory and imagination, affection and indifference. In the words of Ramon y Cajal (1854-1932), a founding figure of neuroscience, neurons are "the mysterious butterflies of the soul, whose beating of wings may one day reveal to us the secrets of the mind." In this talk, Vijay Balasubramanian will explore current ideas about how this transmutation occurs.
Il cervello umano è costituito da 100 miliardi di neuroni collegati da una sinapsi di 100 trilioni. Nella sua funzione computazionale, ogni neurone è un semplice dispositivo elettrico. In questo senso non è diverso, nella sua essenza concettuale, da un transistor o un diodo in un microchip al silicio, convertendo i segnali di ingresso in impulsi di tensione effimeri che trasmettono ad altri neuroni. Eppure, l'effetto collettivo di questi piccoli svolazzi elettrici crea la mente intelligente, con la sua sorprendente capacità di percezione e azione, memoria e immaginazione, affetto e indifferenza. Nelle parole di Ramon y Cajal (1854-1932), una figura fondante della neuroscienza, i neuroni sono "le misteriose farfalle dell'anima, il cui battito delle ali potrebbe un giorno rivelarci i segreti della mente."In questo discorso, Vijay Balasubramanian esplorerà le idee attuali su come avviene questa trasmutazione.
Il cervello umano è costituito da 100 miliardi di neuroni collegati da 100 trilioni di sinapsi. Nella sua funzione computazionale, ogni neurone è un semplice dispositivo elettrico. In questo senso non è diverso, nella sua essenza concettuale, da un transistor o un diodo in un microchip di silicio, che converte i segnali di ingresso in impulsi di tensione effimeri che trasmettono ad altri neuroni. Eppure, l'effetto collettivo di questi minuscoli sbalzi elettrici crea la mente intelligente, con la sua sorprendente capacità di percezione e azione, memoria e immaginazione, affetto e indifferenza. Secondo Ramon y Cajal (1854-1932), figura fondatrice delle neuroscienze, i neuroni sono "le misteriose farfalle dell'anima, il cui battito d'ali potrebbe un giorno rivelarci i segreti della mente". In questo discorso, Vijay Balasubramanian esplorerà le idee attuali su come avviene questa trasmutazione.
How hard is it to prove that problems are hard to solve? Meta-complexity theorists have been asking questions like this for decades. A string of recent results has started to deliver answers.
Il viaggio di 50 anni della teoria della complessità ai limiti della conoscenza Quanto è difficile dimostrare che i problemi sono difficili da risolvere? I teorici della meta-complessità si pongono domande come questa da decenni. Una serie di risultati recenti ha iniziato a fornire risposte.
On the Importance of African Traditional Religion for Economic Behavior
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Within the field of economics, despite being widespread, African traditional religions tend to be perceived as unimportant and ignored when studying economic decision-making. This study tests whether this presumption is correct. Using daily data on business decisions and performance of beer sellers in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we study the importance of traditional religious beliefs for economic behavior and outcomes. Beer sellers perceive the risk of theft in their shops to be higher than it actually is, causing them to hold lower inventories, more frequent stock-outs, and reduced profits. We facilitate randomly-timed access to commonly-used, but typically prohibitively expensive rituals, which reduce the perceived risk of theft. We find that the rituals partially correct the beliefs about the risk of theft for sellers who report believing in the ritual’s efficacy. These sellers purchase more inventory, experience fewer stock-outs, and have larger sales, revenues, and profits. To distinguish the belief in the efficacy of the ritual from other incidental effects of participation, we analyze these outcomes for sellers who do not believe in the ritual. For these individuals, we find none of the observed effects. The findings provide evidence of the importance of African traditional religions, demonstrating that they can influence behavior and outcomes that are important for economic development.
The Dutch government's creation of a registry for all their algorithms is a positive first step towards increasing public control. But the future will
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
The Dutch government’s creation of a registry for all their algorithms is a positive first step towards increasing public control. But the future will decide whether this is good enough, and if organizations need to take further steps beyond transparency to manage algorithm risks. We argue that an algorithm registry can also provide a foundation for managing algorithms risks internally. On top of public transparency, there are more functions that organizations should consider when implementing an algorithm registry. Collaboration and knowledge management, risk assessments and general governance are as well functionalities that help organizations to gain more (internal) control over their algorithms. It’s up to each organization to determine the best approach for them. But it goes without saying that with the right measures in place, algorithm registries help to increase public trust in algorithms and internally assure that they are used ethically and responsibly.
Using field and laboratory experiments, we demonstrate that the complexity of incentive schemes and worker bounded rationality can affect effort provision, by shrouding attributes of the incentives. In our setting, complexity leads workers to over-provide effort relative to a fully rational benchmark, and improves efficiency. We identify contract features, and facets of worker cognitive ability, that matter for shrouding. We find that even relatively small degrees of shrouding can cause large shifts in behavior. Our results illustrate important implications of complexity for designing and regulating workplace incentive contracts.
It is well known that individuals tend to copy behaviours that are common among other people—a phenomenon known as the descriptive norm effect1–3. This effect has been successfully used to encourage a range of real-world prosocial decisions4–7, such as increasing organ donor registrations8. However, it is still unclear why it occurs. Here, we show that people conform to social norms, even when they understand that the norms in question are arbitrary and do not reflect the actual preferences of other people. These results hold across multiple contexts and when controlling for confounds such as anchoring or mere-exposure effects. Moreover, we demonstrate that the degree to which participants conform to an arbitrary norm is determined by the degree to which they self-identify with the group that exhibits the norm. Two prominent explanations of norm adherence—the informational and social sanction accounts2,9–11—cannot explain these results, suggesting that these theories need to be supplemented by an additional mechanism that takes into account self-identity. Pryor et al. show that people conform to social norms, even when they understand that the norms have been determined arbitrarily and do not reflect people’s actual preferences. Prominent, rationality-based explanations of norm effects cannot explain these results.
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Astratto È ben noto che gli individui tendono a copiare comportamenti comuni ad altre persone, un fenomeno noto come effetto norma descrittiva 1 , 2 , 3 . Questo effetto è stato utilizzato con successo per incoraggiare una serie di decisioni prosociali nel mondo reale 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , come l'aumento delle registrazioni dei donatori di organi 8. Tuttavia, non è ancora chiaro il motivo per cui si verifica. Qui dimostriamo che le persone si conformano alle norme sociali, anche quando comprendono che le norme in questione sono arbitrarie e non riflettono le effettive preferenze di altre persone. Questi risultati sono validi in più contesti e quando si controllano i fattori confondenti come l'ancoraggio o gli effetti di mera esposizione. Inoltre, dimostriamo che il grado in cui i partecipanti si conformano a una norma arbitraria è determinato dal grado in cui si autoidentificano con il gruppo che esibisce la norma. Due importanti spiegazioni dell'aderenza alla norma: i resoconti informativi e delle sanzioni sociali 2 , 9 , 10 , 11- non può spiegare questi risultati, suggerendo che queste teorie devono essere integrate da un meccanismo aggiuntivo che tenga conto dell'identità personale.
Existential Terrorism: Can Terrorists Destroy Humanity?
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Abstract Mass-casualty terrorism and terrorism involving unconventional weapons have received extensive academic and policy attention, yet few academics have considered the broader question of whether such behaviours could pose a plausible risk to humanity’s survival or continued flourishing. Despite several terrorist and other violent non-state actors having evinced an interest in causing existential harm to humanity, their ambition has historically vastly outweighed their capability. Nonetheless, three pathways to existential harm exist: existential attack, existential spoilers and systemic harm. Each pathway varies in its risk dynamics considerably. Although an existential attack is plausible, it would require extraordinary levels of terrorist capability. Conversely, modest terrorist capabilities might be sufficient to spoil risk mitigation measures or cause systemic harm, but such actions would only result in existential harm under highly contingent circumstances. Overall, we conclude that the likelihood of terrorism causing existential harm is extremely low, at least in the near to medium term, but it is theoretically possible for terrorists to intentionally destroy humanity.
y wife and I moved to Israel on September 25, 2000—three days before the Al Aqsa Intifada began. Our hopes for a wide-ranging sabbatical, including development work with both Israelis and Palestinians, were quickly dashed. Instead, almost immediately, we were caught up along with everyone else in concerns for our own security as well as […]
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
porre una serie diversa di domande: Perché questo problema persiste nonostante i grandi sforzi delle persone per risolverlo? Perché gli israeliani investono così tanto per aumentare il loro senso di sicurezza, eppure si sentono così insicuri? Perché i palestinesi, nonostante sopportino la perdita di vite umane e le estreme difficoltà economiche, ottengono così poco il rispetto e la sovranità che cercano così duramente di ottenere? Perché è difficile per coloro che, da entrambe le parti, desiderano un compromesso realizzabile, ottenere un sostegno sufficiente per le soluzioni che ritengono possibili? Dov’è la leva nel conflitto, cioè cosa possono fare le persone per produrre una soluzione sostenibile a livello di sistema? Il campo del pensiero sistemico è particolarmente efficace per consentire alle persone di comprendere perché non sono riuscite a risolvere problemi cronici nonostante i loro migliori sforzi. Sebbene una visione sistemica non possa rispondere pienamente a queste domande, può illuminare il modo in cui le persone pensano e le conseguenze dei loro pensieri e delle loro azioni sui risultati che ottengono, in modi che possono aiutarli a vedere e ottenere nuove soluzioni sostenibili. Comprendendo l’esatta natura dei circoli viziosi in cui siamo rimasti intrappolati, possiamo creare nuovi modelli di relazioni che ci servono meglio. Ho iniziato ad applicare il pensiero sistemico alla crisi del Medio Oriente per vedere se potevo far luce sulle possibili vie d’uscita dalla tragedia in corso.
Abstract: This paper studies the behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of reported compliance with prophylactic measures against COVID-19: barrier gestures, lockdown restrictions and mask wearing. The study contrasts two types of measures for behavioral determinants: experimentally elicited preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, social value orientation and cooperativeness) and stated preferences (risk tolerance, time preferences, and the GSS trust question). Data were collected from a representative sample of the metropolitan French adult population (N=1154) surveyed during the first lockdown in May 2020, and the experimental tasks were carried out on-line. The in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of several regression models - which vary in the set of variables that they include - are studied and compared. Overall, we find that stated preferences are better predictors of compliance with these prophylactic measures than preferences elicited through incentivized experiments: self-reported level of risk, patience and trust are predicting compliance, while elicited measures of risk-aversion, patience, cooperation and prosociality did not.
Binghamton Center of Complex Systems (CoCo) Seminar September 20, 2023 William G. Kennedy (Computational & Data Sciences, George Mason University) "Introduction…
Nonlinear optical effects including stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) and four-wave mixing (FWM) play an important role in microwave photonics, optical freq
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Gli effetti ottici non lineari, tra cui lo scattering Brillouin stimolato (SBS) e la miscelazione a quattro onde (FWM), svolgono un ruolo importante nella fotonica a microonde, nei pettini di frequenza ottica e nella fotonica quantistica. Sfruttare SBS e FWM in una piattaforma integrata versatile e a basse perdite aprirebbe la strada alla costruzione di circuiti integrati fotonici su larga scala basati su Brillouin/Kerr. In questa lettera, indaghiamo le proprietà Brillouin e Kerr di una piattaforma di ossinitruro di silicio (SiON) a basso indice (n = 1,513 a 1550 nm). Abbiamo osservato, per la prima volta, lo scattering Brillouin all'indietro in guide d'onda SiON con un coefficiente di guadagno Brillouin di 0,3 m −1 W −1 , che può potenzialmente essere aumentato a 0,95 m −1 W −1semplicemente adattando la sezione trasversale della guida d'onda. Abbiamo anche eseguito esperimenti FWM in anelli SiON e ottenuto il parametro non lineare γ di 0,02 m −1 W −1 . I nostri risultati indicano una piattaforma fotonica integrata a bassa perdita e basso indice che è attiva sia Brillouin che Kerr.
Photonic integration, advanced functionality, reconfigurability, and high radio frequency (RF) performance are key features in integrated microwave photonic sys
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Photonic integration, advanced functionality, reconfigurability, and high radio frequency (RF) performance are key features in integrated microwave photonic systems that are still difficult to achieve simultaneously. In this work, we demonstrate an integrated microwave photonic circuit that can be reconfigured for two distinct RF functions, namely, a tunable notch filter and a phase shifter. We achieved > 50 dB high-extinction notch filtering over 6–16 GHz and 2π continuously tunable phase shifting over 12–20 GHz frequencies. At the same time, we implemented an on-chip linearization technique to achieve a spurious-free dynamic range of more than 120 dB · Hz4/5 for both functions. Our work combines multi-functionality and linearization in one photonic integrated circuit and paves the way to reconfigurable RF photonic front-ends with very high performance.
From the astonishing evolutionary advances of the Cambrian explosion to our present-day computing revolution, the trend of dramatic growth after periods of stability can be explained through the theory of the "adjacent possible," says theoretical biologist Stuart Kauffman. Tracing the arc of human history through the tools and technologies we’ve invented, he explains the impact human ingenuity has had on the planet -- and calls for a shift towards more protection for all life on Earth.
Dai sorprendenti progressi evolutivi dell'esplosione cambriana alla nostra attuale rivoluzione informatica, la tendenza della drammatica crescita dopo periodi di stabilità può essere spiegata attraverso la teoria del "adiacente possibile", afferma il biologo teorico Stuart Kauffman. Tracciando l'arco della storia umana attraverso gli strumenti e le tecnologie che abbiamo inventato, spiega l'impatto che l'ingegnosità umana ha avuto sul pianeta e chiede un passaggio verso una maggiore protezione per tutta la vita sulla Terra.
The constituents of many complex systems are characterized by non-trivial connectivity patterns and dynamical processes that are well captured by network models. However, most systems are coupled with each other through interdependencies, characterized by relationships among heterogeneous units, or multiplexity, characterized by the coexistence of different kinds of relationships among homogeneous units. Multilayer networks provide the framework to capture the complexity typical of systems of systems, enabling the analysis of biophysical, social and human-made networks from an integrated perspective. Here I review the most important theoretical developments in the past decade, showing how the layered structure of multilayer networks is responsible for phenomena that cannot be observed from the analysis of subsystems in isolation or from their aggregation, including enhanced diffusion, emergent mesoscale organization and phase transitions. I discuss applications spanning multiple spatial scales, from the cell to the human brain and to ecological and social systems, and offer perspectives and challenges on future research directions.
I costituenti di molti sistemi complessi sono caratterizzati da modelli di connettività non banali e processi dinamici che sono ben catturati dai modelli di rete. Tuttavia, la maggior parte dei sistemi sono accoppiati tra loro attraverso interdipendenze, caratterizzate da relazioni tra unità eterogenee, o multiplexity, caratterizzate dalla coesistenza di diversi tipi di relazioni tra unità omogenee. Le reti multistrato forniscono la struttura per catturare la complessità tipica dei sistemi di sistemi, consentendo l'analisi delle reti biofisiche, sociali e create dall'uomo da una prospettiva integrata. Qui passo in rassegna gli sviluppi teorici più importanti degli ultimi dieci anni, mostrando come la struttura a strati delle reti multistrato sia responsabile di fenomeni che non possono essere osservati dall'analisi di sottosistemi isolati o dalla loro aggregazione, inclusa la diffusione migliorata, l'organizzazione emergente della mesoscala e le transizioni di fase. Discuto applicazioni che abbracciano più scale spaziali, dalla cellula al cervello umano e ai sistemi ecologici e sociali, e offro prospettive e sfide sulle future direzioni di ricerca.
Fact checking can be an effective strategy against misinformation, but its implementation at scale is impeded by the overwhelming volume of information online. Recent artificial intelligence (AI) language models have shown impressive ability in fact-checking tasks, but how humans interact with fact-checking information provided by these models is unclear. Here we investigate the impact of fact checks generated by a popular AI model on belief in, and sharing intent of, political news in a preregistered randomized control experiment. Although the AI performs reasonably well in debunking false headlines, we find that it does not significantly affect participants' ability to discern headline accuracy or share accurate news. However, the AI fact-checker is harmful in specific cases: it decreases beliefs in true headlines that it mislabels as false and increases beliefs for false headlines that it is unsure about. On the positive side, the AI increases sharing intents for correctly labeled true headlines. When participants are given the option to view AI fact checks and choose to do so, they are significantly more likely to share both true and false news but only more likely to believe false news. Our findings highlight an important source of potential harm stemming from AI applications and underscore the critical need for policies to prevent or mitigate such unintended consequences.
Netherlands Improve government purchase and use of algorithms (NL0050) Overview At-a-Glance Action Plan: Netherlands Action Plan 2020-2022 Action Plan Cycle: 2020 Status: Institutions Lead Institution: Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK) Support Institution(s): Other Actors...
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
What is the public problem that the commitment will address? More and more government management and policy decisions are based on data and algorithms. Decisions based on algorithms are often not transparent to citizens and companies, while the consequences of applying these algorithms can be of great significance for society. What is the commitment? In summary, the following activities are carried out for improving the supervision of the use of algorithms by the government: Development of an algorithm and human rights impact assessment in which connection is sought as much as possible with existing assessments; Improvements to purchasing conditions for government purchasing algorithms from companies. Exploration with government organizations and scientists whether and how to arrive at joint definitions in the field of AI and algorithms. An overview of available tools for the development and use of more complex algorithms. How will the commitment contribute to solving the public problem? Providing government organizations with tools for dealing with algorithms and making them transparent and purchasing them ensures that governments can make more conscious choices and be more transparent about their actions. This makes the government's use of algorithms more understandable for residents.
Can algorithms help people predict behavior in high-stakes prisoner’s dilemmas? Participants watching the pre-play communication of contestants in the TV show Golden Balls display a limited ability to predict contestants’ behavior, while algorithms do significantly better. We provide participants algorithmic advice by flagging videos for which an algorithm predicts a high likelihood of cooperation or defection. We find that the effectiveness of flags depends on their timing: participants rely significantly more on flags shown before they watch the videos than flags shown after they watch them. These findings show that the timing of algorithmic feedback is key for its adoption.
Gli archetipi sono modelli ricorrenti di comportamento che forniscono informazioni sulle strutture che guidano i sistemi. Offrono un modo per decifrare le dinamiche dei sistemi attraverso una varietà di discipline, scenari o contesti. Pensa a questi archetipi come alle trame dei sistemi nel mondo. Proprio come puoi identificare la stessa formula per una commedia romantica o un thriller in un film di Hollywood, questi archetipi aiutano i pensatori di sistemi a vedere comportamenti e flussi in termini più concreti. Fondamentalmente offrono approfondimenti sui comportamenti universali in diversi scenari di sistema. Non ho ancora menzionato i modelli mentali in questa serie, ma è importante capire il concetto in quanto questi sono i frame in cui vediamo il mondo e il termine è usato parecchio nel gergo dei sistemi. Gli archetipi si basano sull'euristica , che sono scorciatoie mentali che tutti usiamo per dare un senso al mondo. Usiamo gli archetipi per aiutare a spostare la nostra prospettiva di un problema da un modello mentale di colpa, a uno di curiosità e costante indagine.
Questo paper – di cui pubblichiamo l’abstract – esplora sfide e opportunità per l’Italia, in un contesto europeo e globale mutato, a partire dai rapporti geoeconomici e dal rapporto tra economia e sicurezza. Il contributo di Aspen Institute Italia è
Alessandro Cerboni's insight:
Il quadro macroeconomico internazionale presenta una forte volatilità (per certi versi, strutturale) e spinte contrastanti che pongono un’obiettiva difficoltà analitica. Per meglio interpretare l’attuale direzione di marcia è utile ricordare le tendenze precedenti, cioè le caratteristiche salienti del “periodo d’oro” della globalizzazione e i problemi emersi nel corso dell’ultimo quindicennio. Nei paesi avanzati, i primi due decenni del secolo hanno visto emergere vari segnali della cosiddetta “stagnazione secolare”: invecchiamento della popolazione, transizione tecnologica caratterizzata da uno scarso impatto sulla crescita della produttività, eccesso di risparmio e tassi di interesse molto bassi o perfino negativi. L’insieme di questi fattori ha prodotto due decenni di crescita mediamente molto bassa, costellata da varie crisi economico-finanziarie, inflazione al di sotto degli obiettivi delle Banche Centrali (il 2% circa), e aumento dei livelli di debito sia privato che sovrano. A questi fattori si sono poi aggiunte un’iniezione di liquidità senza precedenti nel sistema economico e una significativa accelerazione della transizione energetica.
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